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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "severe ramifications" in August should Russia's president continued obstructing truce negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted major sanctions on the Russian two largest energy firms, these major energy companies. This decision significantly impacted Putin's capacity to support his aggression in the region.

However, via his newly presented 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the plan effectively weaken that essential sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, implying ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's land will satisfy the president. But, Russia's war is not only about controlling a damaged swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear desire to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that Putin's growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Surrenders

While maintaining in place the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unable to seize in more than a decade of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukraine's military defenses critically compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually opt to renew the conflict.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would enable future hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would force the nation to cut the size of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's plan places no similar limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as Nazis, the proposal declares: "Any Nazi belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." As if to highlight this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in his own country.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the plan has Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a handback of seized areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "strong coordinated military response" if Russia renew its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from unclear to concerning. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

Another parallel deal apparently would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed invasion – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not