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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.