A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
